Friday, March 13, 2015

Regression models

-1≤correlation≤1
0-0.3 = weak linear relationship
0.3 – 0.7= moderate linear  relationship
0.7=1 = Strong  linear relationship
Q12
a)      Regression conditions and assumptions
Multiple linear regression needs at least 3 variables of metric (ratio or interval) scale.  A rule of thumb for the sample size is that regression analysis requires at least 20 cases per independent variable in the analysis, in the simplest case of having just two independent variables that requires n > 40.  G*Power can also be used to calculate a more exact, appropriate sample size.

Firstly, multiple linear regression needs the relationship between the independent and dependent variables to be linear. It is also important to check for outliers since multiple linear regression is sensitive to outlier effects. The linearity assumption can best be tested with scatter plots, the following two examples depict two cases, where no and little linearity is present.
 See more at: http://www.statisticssolutions.com/academic-solutions/resources/directory-of-statistical-analyses/assumptions-of-multiple-linear-regression/#sthash.5AnM14GS.dpuf
·           Linearity
Linearity. This assumption says that the relationship between x and y must be linear.
If this assumption is not met, then the parameters will be biased.
·           Independence
·           Randomization
·           Equal variance Assumption
·           Equal spread assumption
·           Normality assumption
·           Nearly normal assumption
b)      R² of Regression

 What Is R-squared?

R2/R-Squared: Multiple R-Squared and Adjusted R-Squared are both statistics derived from the regression equation to quantify model performance. The value of R-squared ranges from 0 to 100 percent. If your model fits the observed dependent variable values perfectly, R-squared is 1.0 (and you, no doubt, have made an error… perhaps you've used a form of y to predict y). More likely, you will see R-squared values like 0.49, for example, which you can interpret by saying: this model explains 49% of the variation in the dependent variable. To understand what the R-squared value is getting at, create a bar graph showing both the estimated and observed Y values sorted by the estimated values. Notice how much overlap there is. This graphic provides a visual representation of how well the model's predicted values explain the variation in the observed dependent variable values. View an illustration. The Adjusted R-Squared value is always a bit lower than the Multiple R-Squared value because it reflects model complexity (the number of variables) as it relates to the data.

R-squared is a statistical measure of how close the data are to the fitted regression line. It is also known as the coefficient of determination, or the coefficient of multiple determination for multiple regression.
The definition of R-squared is fairly straight-forward; it is the percentage of the response variable variation that is explained by a linear model. Or:
R-squared = Explained variation / Total variation written as
R-squared = sum of squared regression( SSR) /total sum of square (SSTotal)
R squared or r squared adjusted  
R-squared is always between 0 and 100%:
·         0% indicates that the model explains none of the variability of the response data around its mean.
·         100% indicates that the model explains all the variability of the response data around its mean.
In general, the higher the R-squared, the better the model fits your data. However, there are important conditions for this guideline that I’ll talk about both in this post and my next post.
Graphical Representation of R-squared
Plotting fitted values by observed values graphically illustrates different R-squared values for regression models.
Regression plots of fitted by observed responses to illustrate R-squared
The regression model on the left accounts for 38.0% of the variance while the one on the right accounts for 87.4%. The more variance that is accounted for by the regression model the closer the data points will fall to the fitted regression line. Theoretically, if a model could explain 100% of the variance, the fitted values would always equal the observed values and, therefore, all the data points would fall on the fitted regression line.
R squared is coeefiiant of determination. It tells us if our regression model is a good one or not.
-1≤≤1
When is zero, means 0% of variability in y (dependant variable) explained by variability in X (independant variable)
When is 1, means 100% of variability in y (dependant variable) explained by variability in X (independant variable) and in such case thee will be no residuals , so it’s a perfect model.

R-squared = sum of squared regression( SSR) /total sum of square (SSTotal)
= 484.789/
R-squared is 99%
This means that the variability in dependant variable (Receipts) is 99.9% explained by variability in
Independent variables (Paid Attendance, No. of shows and Avg ticket price) and we have some residuals

Q14)
a)      What I the regression model?
Receipts =? + Paid Attendance + No. of shows + Avg ticket price + Ɛ
Receipts = -18.320 + 0.076 (Paid attendance) + 0.0070 (No. of shows) + 0.24(Avg Ticket Price) + Ɛ
b)    What does the coefficient of Paid attendance mean in this regression? Does this make sense?
Each independent variable is associated with a regression coefficient . this coefficient describes the strength and the sign of that variable's relationship to the dependent variable.
Regression coefficients (β): coefficients are computed by the regression tool. They are values, one for each explanatory variable, that represent the strength and type of relationship the explanatory variable has to the dependent variable.
Coefficient of Paid attendance is + 0.0070 indicating a poisitve relationship between PA and R. (When the relationship is positive, the sign for the associated coefficient is also positive).
β0 is the regression intercept. It represents the expected value for the dependent variable if all of the independent variables are zero.

Answer: βPA = 0.0070
Means for a single unit change in PA, receipts (R) would be changed by 0.076 units, assuming other independent variables remain constant.

DOES IT MAKE  SENSE?
Construct hyp.
H0: Β1 = 0  (meaning Paid Attendance (PA)  do not affect  Receipts)
Ha: Β1 ≠ 0  (meaning Paid Attendance (PA)  do affect Receipts)

H0: Model is not good. 
Ha: Model is good
When      Fcalc  >  Ftab    reject the null hyp.

We assume α = 0.05
 Ftab           F0.05, (3-74)

F0.05, (3 – 60)= 2.76
F0.05, (3 – 75)= 2.73

=     2.76 – 2.73    = 0.002
                 15

(should we take 0.025 to calc f)
0.002 x 14 = 0.028

2.73   +  0.028 =  2.758

So,
F0.05, (3 – 74)=  2.758

c)     In a week in which the
Paid Attendance was 200,000,
Customers attending shows 30
Avg ticket price $ 70
What would you estimate the receipts would be?

Answer
Receipts = -18.30 + 0.076(200,000) + (0.0070)30 + (0.24)70 + Ɛ
                       =15198.71
d)      Is this likely to be a good prediction? Why do you think that?
?
Q16)
a)      How was the t ratio of 126.7 found for paid attendance?

tcalc = β - β H0

             SE  
 =         0.076 – 0
            0.0006

=  126.7


The t-statistic for the significance of the slope is essentially a test to determine if the regression model (equation) is usable. If the slope is significantly different than zero, then we can use the regression model to predict the dependent variable for any value of the independent variable

b)      How many weeks are included in this regression? How can you tell?

Answer : 24 weeks

89/4 = 22.25 + 2 = 24.25

c)      The t-ratio for the intercept is negative. What does that mean?

tint = βint - β H0

             SE  
=      – 18.320 – 0
           0.3127


=     – 58.6


Assuming if all independent variables were zero, in the case receipts  ( R) would be -18.320, indicating a loss of receipts. (Fixed costs)
 (

Draw loss graph)

a negative value for your constant/intercept should not be a cause for concern. This simply means that the expected value on dependent variable will be less than 0 (i.e. negative) when all independent/predictor variables are set to 0.
The intercept is usually called the constant, and the slope is referred to as the coefficient. 

Q18)
a)    State the standard null and alternative hyp for the true coefficient of No. of Shows.
ΒNS =0.0070

our hypothesis
H0: Β1 = 0  (meaning NS do not affect Receipts)
Ha: Β1 ≠ 0  (meaning NS do affect Receipts)
H0: The slope of the regression line is equal to zero. 
Ha: The slope of the regression line is not equal to zero.
If the relationship between No. of shows and receipts is significant, the slope will not equal zero.

b)    Test the null hypothesis ( at α = 0.05) and state your conclusion.
tNS = 1.59

P-Value NS = 0.166 ≥ 0.05/2

P-Value NS = 0.166 ≥ 0.025

As p-value is greater than  α we do not reject, null hypothesis. Means No. of shows do not have significant effect over receipts.

c)    A Broadway investor challenges our decision/analysis. He points out scatterplot of Receipts vs no. of shows.  Explain to him why our answer in b isn’t a contradiction

Multicollinearity


Q20)














Q22) which regression conditions can be checked in the three plots?

Plot 1
Linear assumption cant be explained because there is no obvious pattern.


Plot 2
Normality assumption is met as plot looks like a normal distribution.

Plot 3

Shows increases towards year end and beginning (around winter time) and then goes down in mid year (summer time). So we see some pattern in the plot. Around winter time the residual goes up

Impact on recepits ?

If Ɛ i.e .residuals increase our receipts increase, assuming Ɛ  is a normal distribution

Scatterplot shows there is some interdependence in between residual i.e. in between receipts so independence condition isn’t met. 

Friday, April 25, 2014

Table Of Contents
. Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………….3
         1. Globalization And International Business…….……………………………….……….3
          a) Formation Of Uae Impacting Glabalization …...............……………………………...3
          b) Globalization And International Business……………………  ……………………...3
          c) The Forces Driving Globalization In UAE……………………………………………4
         2. Cultural Environment……………………………………………………………….….4
           a) Key Cultural Concepts And Values……………………………………………….….4
         3. Political And Legal Environment………………………………………………….…..5
            a) Political Environment…………………………………………………………….….5
            b) Legal Environment……………………………………………………………….….5
         4. Economic Environment…………………………………………………………….….6
         5. International Trade And Factor-Mobility Theory………………………………….….7
            a) Free-Trade Agreements………………………………………………………….….7
            b) Products UAE Trade With Different Countries………………………………….…7
            c) Competitive Advantage………………………………………………………….….7
            d) Comparative Advantage………………………………………………………….…8
         6. International Trade And Factor-Mobility Theory………………………………….….8
            a) Government Intervention……………………………………………………………8
            b) Government Policies………………………………………………………………...8
            c) Environmental Protection Policies…………………………………………………..8

            d) Tariff………………………………………………………………………………...9

            e) Restrictions………………………………………………………………………….9
          7. Cross-National Cooperation And Agreements……...………………………………..9
            a) Greater Arab Free Trade Area………………………………………………………9
             b) Duty Free Country………………………………………………………………...10
             c) Gulf Cooperation Council…………………………………………………………10
          8. The Determination Of Exchange Rate………………………………………………10
            a) GDP And Exchange Rate…………………………………………………………..10
            b) Fisher Effect………………………………………………………………………..10
            c) Major Trading Partner……………………………………………………………...11
            d) Big Mac Index……………………………………………………………………...11
            e) Membership With Opec And World Bank………………………………………....11
          9. References……………………………………………………………………………12
        10. Appendix……………………………………………………………………………..14








Executive Summary:
UAE is holding the second the position in Middle East and North African region after the formation and it has become one of strongest country economically last couple of years around the globe. To have a thorough analysis on the progress of the country its recent major steps, infrastructure, rules and regulation, demography are the key issues to be jotted down. At first was influenced by globalization and international business and its cultural environment and political environment were also favorable also to add advantage of its expansion in trade. Economic environment of UAE was flexible enough to face businesses and its international trade & factor mobility theory is discussed in depth. As UAE is enriched with natural resources their trade is influenced by government as they take multi-dimensional strategy for continual development through cross national cooperation and agreement with major trading partners. Finally the determination of exchange rate is discussed with sub points in this report.

I. Globalization and International business

a)         Formation of UAE impacting Globalization
UAE is a major part of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) which is a diversified region including countries with similar heritage, abundantly enriched with natural resources and with a  booming economic progress since its formation. This federation of states joined together and became the United Arab Emirates (UAE) forming a milestone in 1971-72 with seven states: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm al-Quwain, Ras al-Khaimah and Fujairah and each state is ruled by an Emir (Ruler or Governor).
b)         Globalization and International business
Dubai is located on the Persian Gulf, in the north east of the United Arab Emirates. Due to its strategic geographical position it allows to connect with all the Gulf States, south Asia and east Africa. Total population of UAE is 1.5 million, only 10 percent are local Emirati, the rest are people from all over the world. People from over 160 different nationalities are working and living peacefully. The national language is Arabic but English is understood and spoken by most of the people. During summers the weather in UAE is hot and humid, temperatures are around mid-40 C with humidity mean at 90 percent.
Dubai is the most cosmopolitan and westernized place in the Middle East. UAE is politically and socially stables society, which makes it one of the ideal tourist spots in the world. It is positioned as an economic center of the Gulf States and business negotiation hub for many deals. Most of the Chinese business uses Dubai as a hub for Africa and many Indian traders are using Dubai to access the world markets, more than half of the global biggest conglomerates are operating in Dubai. Government investor friendly policies, tax breaks and developed infrastructure is a driving force in attracting investor around the globe. Dubai city has integrated and extensively developed foreign trade network, which positions them world’s third largest export and transshipment center after Singapore and Hong Kong.


c)         The Forces driving globalization in UAE:
·         Having the second largest economy in the MENA region UAE struggles with its demography comprising a diversified population as native UAE citizen account for only 10% of the population and foreign nationals made up rest.
·         UAE’s location between major markets in Europe and Asia served as an increased opportunity for globalization and making it a major trade area strengthening the fact of its role in history as a hub for trade in this zone since medieval time.
·         Average per capita GDP in UAE from 1973 to 2012 is being counted at 49730.58 USD which reached at an all-time high of 81974.24 USD in 1980 and a drastic low of 23795.86 USD in 2011.
Countries with higher income tends to be more globalized than countries with lower per capita income and this fact is implied to UAE as it has more buying capacity of foreign products compared to some other countries making it a global village.

II. CULTURAL ENVIRONMENT

a)         Key Cultural Concepts and Values

To understand culture and people in Gulf States it is important to have some understanding of religion Islam. Islam is the official religion in UAE and it is embedded in every aspect of life from conducting business to social interaction in the society. Islamic belief emphasizes on modesty, respect and generosity. One of the most important thing for an individual is their honor, therefore indirect style of communication accommodates culture desire to safeguard honor e.g. (business discussion rarely results in a direct no).  Arabs places high value on courtesy and etiquettes, it is considered rude to step back while talking because in Arab culture they leave less personal space while having a conversation. Arab women usually do not shake hands with Arab or non-Arab men. They are mostly greeted with good face gestures and body language symbols such as placing hand over heart when greeting them. Most of the people use first or the last name when greeting each other or any status title given to them. In Arab culture status of the individual is important and senior people in the group are greeted first. In business deals or meetings people do not directly come to the agenda, to show courtesy and interest towards each other and not just in business matters to be conducted, individuals will starts conversation with light moments like asking about each other family members few times. Arab culture inserts high value on relationship and this explains the reason they have several breaks in office hours for purpose of lunch, prayers and socializing.
Citizens of UAE have their own way which is guided by the deep rooted Arab culture but citizens of Dubai are a minority in their own land, people from different nationalities and ethnic group constitute large population. UAE dress code is liberal but it is supposed to be modest and respectful considering the culture of Arabs. Islam prohibits alcohol therefore it is illegal to have alcohol is Dubai without a license and any display of drunkenness in public is punishable.
Power distance:  UAE is a high power distance society which means that people accept hierarchical order with no further explanation or justifications. Subordinates are directed and told what to do, the ideal leaders and boss are benevolent autocrat.
Individualism: UAE is considered to be a collective culture. The collective culture is embedded to the close long term commitment of the member groups e.g. family and extended relationships. Most important aspect of collective culture is loyalty and sometimes it even over rides society regulations. In collective culture employer and employee relationship is like a family link, most of the hiring and promotions decisions are partially made on the basis of loyalty and in group membership.
Masculinity: UAE is regarded as a masculinity society. Males are dominant and leaders in the society and expect to take care of the finances and other major issues, while female are restricted to specific roles.
Uncertainty avoidance: UAE score high on uncertainty avoidance dimension and therefore they have high tolerance for avoiding uncertainty. They dislike unstructured and unknown situations and as a society they follow their beliefs and behaviors and are intolerant of unorthodox ideas. The society does not accept change readily.

III. POLITICAL AND LEGAL ENVIRONMENT
a)         Political Environment
United Arab Emirates (UAE) consists of the following seven Emirates or Provinces: Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Ras al- Khaimah, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm al-Qaiwain, and Fujairah. Abu Dhabi is the capital of the country, but each of these seven emirates has its own ruler. The form of government in UAE is referred to as ‘Federal presidential elected monarchy’, because the president is elected from amongst the rulers of the seven emirates. According to convention, the ruler of Abu Dhabi is the President of UAE and also the head of state, whereas the ruler of Dubai is the Prime Minister and the head of government. Currently, the President is Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan since November 2004 and the Prime Minister is Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum since January 2006.
The president appoints the cabinet. There is also a special council called the Federal Supreme Council (FSC), which consists of all the seven rulers. The FSC is the highest constitutional body in the country, and it forms general policies and sanctions federal legislations.
b)         Legal Environment
UAE’s legal system is based on civil laws principles and Islamic Shariah law, where Shariah law is the main source of legislation. The federal constitution allows each emirate to have its own judicial authority, however, all emirates except Dubai and Ras Al Khaimah have their own judicial system put into practice. It is important to mention here that the President still has the power to overrule any judgment passed by any judicial authority in UAE. The country is considered one of the least corrupt in the Middle East. All property in Abu Dhabi, is government owned. Non-nationals are allowed to own land in only certain areas.
An extract from the article by ‘Andrew Tarbuck & Chris Lester’ on Dubai’s legal system briefly and accurately highlights enforcement of laws in the country. It states that law enforcement in the UAE is very strictly enforced with zero tolerance policy against buying, consuming or even holding drugs of any sort. The punishments can vary from immediate deportation to life imprisonment or even in some cases, death sentence. Though alcohol is available in some specially listed stores, it cannot be consumed in the open public. Also, driving under the influence can land somebody in big trouble.

IV. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
UAE, namely Dubai, has become a massive financial hub and the most sought after tourist destination in the Middle East after the economic meltdown of 2008. UAE has the second largest economy in the Arab World and the most diversified in the Middle East. Winning the 2020 Expo has further brought Dubai in the global lime light for economic progress.
The discovery of oil or ‘Black Gold, as it is commonly referred to, in the 1950s spear headed UAEs economy into a positive direction, turning this barren piece of desert into a big cosmopolitan city. The tax-free policy of the government is one of the major reasons why many MNEs have opened and, in some cases, shifted their head offices to Dubai. The local currency of UAE is Arab Emirati Dirham (AED) or just Dirham. Since November 1997, the exchange rate between the AED and USD has been fixed at 1USD=3.67 AED. Another very interesting law that the government has passed is that of starting up a business by foreigners. The UAE Commercial Company Law (CCL) requires company to have at least 51% of the capital being controlled by a UAE national, making sure that the money stays in the country.
A 2014 Index of Economic Freedom placed UAE at the 28th position globally and the 2nd position regionally as the freest economy with a score of 71.4. A brief summary of the statistics from the Index is given below and the full two-page report can be found in the attached Appendix.
GDP (PPP):
·         $271.3 billion
·         3.9% growth
·         2.1% 5-year compound annual growth
·         $49,012 per capita
Unemployment:
·         2.4%
Inflation (CPI):
·         0.7%
FDI Inflow:
·         $9.6 billion
As mentioned above, Tourism is one of the major sources of income for UAE. With a mixture of sun, sand, beaches, world class hotels, malls and theme parks, UAE opened its arms to more than 9.1 million visitors in 2013 generating revenues of AED15.33bn ($4.16bn). Few of the major attractions include the Burj Khlifa, world’s tallest building, Burj Al-Arab, the world’s only seven star hotel and the Dubai Mall, world’s biggest mall, Ferrari world, Abu Dhabi, which boasts the world’s fastest roller coaster ride.
Emirates Airlines and Etihad Airlines are not only UAEs biggest airlines, but are also ranked amongst the top ten in the world. Emirates Airlines boasts itself as the only airline in the world to have only wide body aircrafts and the largest user of the Airbus A380, the biggest commercial passenger jet in the world. Emirates flies to more than 134 destinations worldwide whereas Etihad flies to more than 96 destinations. Both these airlines contribute significantly to the country’s economy.

V. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FACTOR-MOBILITY THEORY:
To attract more foreign direct investment and enter into new markets the foreign ministry of UAE is targeting to strengthen their continuing relationship with trade partners. UAE has maintained its position of leading trade Centre globally and the next market they are looking forward to is Tourism Industry by constructing World Tallest Building named Burj Khalifa.
a)         Free-trade agreements
UAE has firm belief in liberalization of trade, open system of economy and facilitation of trade. The trade ministry believes in free trade agreements that are proven successful by present global trader position that is enjoyed by the economy of UAE. The mission is to pursue more and more free trade negotiations and agreements with different countries. The UAE has already penned customs union with Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which allows them to have a free trade with Singapore and (EFTA) European Free Trade Association Countries. UAE has also agreed upon and signed different bilateral agreements with many countries and numerous trade blocks.
b)         Products UAE trade with different Countries
In the world UAE was ranked 4th largest re exporting hub in year 2012. If you compare the land size and the population to their trade activities it is very small, but if you look at their commodity trading achievements they were ranked 4th according to the W.T.O. (World Trade Organization).The exports are expected to rise to 9.4% every year. But due to huge influx of tourism demand for foreign goods will increase the demand of international goods as well which will raise the imports in the coming 5 years as more than 10% by each year. The UAE will be ranked 22 in the world largest importer as well. In 2017, UAE top three exporting and importing countries would be USA, India and China. Whereas Taiwan, Indonesia and Vietnam are exhibiting gradual increase of importing and exporting with UAE as well.
Following are the major export/import of UAE:
Exports: Fuel, Other manufacturing goods finished unfinished. Metals such as gold etc.
Imports: Telecommunication and electrical devices for office, vehicles, textiles and food products
c)         Competitive Advantage: UAE best competitive advantages of shopping tourism destination, the highlights are The Dubai Mall, Mall of Emirates etc.
d)         Comparative Advantage: One of the UAE comparative advantage is its Oil and gas sector which was the back bone of the Dubai economy, which now is goods and services.
One of the major factors of labor migration to UAE is very low taxes which attract more businesses and labor around the world which makes UAE heavens for business and service orientated labors.

VI. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND FACTOR-MOBILITY THEORY:
a)         Government Intervention:                                                                                                          The government of UAE is pro-business for which they continuously encourage and actively participate in business in UAE. By the means of training there people, sending students on government scholarships to foreign countries, development of infrastructure government is dedicated to some growth. The government officials routinely meet with the representative of multinational corporations for new businesses and maintaining the good relationship with already working mnc’s in UAE and providing support to them.
b)         Government Policies:
Doing business in UAE requires businesses to adhere to some government policies that are somewhat different from other countries.one of the policy is that the national of Emirates would be the 51% owner of the company and he will be the sponsor as well. But the foreign business representing branch offices are excluded from this government policy.
Free Zones:
However there are places called free zones by UAE government that allows foreign investors or mnc’s to wholly own and operate their businesses. E.g. Dubai Airport, Knowledge Village and Dubai Internet City.
Legal Policies and Taxes:
Companies that are working in free zones are taken as offshore for all the legal purposes. Free zones are also given the benefit of exclusion from corporate taxes and import duties.
Unemployment Policies:                                                                                                                The UAE government has imposed a set job quota for hiring UAE nationals in multinational corporations working in construction and oil sector.
c)         Environmental Protection Policies:                                                                                               There are huge reforms in policy of waste management and environmental protection by UAE government, which included empowering Ministry of Environment and Water against convicted industries, or business that are polluting above the allowed level and introducing essential recycling policies. The empowerment will allow ministry to punish the offenders bypassing the courts.

 

 

d)         Tariff

Being a member of GCC, UAE government applies the GCC common tariff that is Harmonized Rate of 5 % applied to import. Some of the UAE tariff detail is following:
·         Cigarettes: 100 percent
·         Alcohol: 50 percent
·         Tobacco and Cigars: 200 AED/kg
·         Duty Free: Some Food Products and Medicines
e)         Restrictions:
In accordance to religious, cultural and moral values some of the products are banned such as:
·         Israel manufactured goods
·         Pornography
Special Certificates: Halal certificate is required for meat products. Livestock importing or business in UAE requires special sanitary certificates from approved authorities of the exporting country.

VII. CROSS-NATIONAL COOPERATION AND AGREEMENTS
a)         Greater Arab Free Trade Area
The Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) was founded with the aim to form an Arab economic block that can efficiently contest with other nations while safeguarding that each nation enlarged commerce with each other. The best significant feature of the 1997 pact was that over the next 10 years of period each participant state would pursue to bring a 10% decrease in customs duties and tariff per year in addition to this there will be also continual eradication of trade hurdles. On 1 January 2005 the abolition of duties between the GAFTA member countries was imposed. UAE is a member country of Greater Arab Free-Trade Area Agreement; all the member countries of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are actively taking part in the business. This empowers UAE to do business with all member countries of GATFTA with lowest tariff and obstacles.
UAE is considered as hub for the intra-regional trade. After Saudi Arabia, UAE is second largest in terms of exports to GAFTA member countries. Mainly 60% exports of UAE comprises of non-hydrocarbon in the global markets. It tries to imports more from the Arab territory countries in comparison to any other country outside of the territory, and these countries are Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Oman. Nevertheless, about 38% exports of UAE are re-exports, mostly countries outside the bound of GAFTA region. This means that at least 8 billion dollar of intra-territorial trade is initially obtained from outside the bounds of GAFTA, and it only passes through the UAE. UAE is having strong ties for the bilateral trade connections in the Arab territory, conducting 12 billion dollar trade with the Oman, which account about 6% of the total intra territorial trade and with Saudi Arabia it is conducting about 7.2 billion dollars, which also accounts about 3% of the intra territorial trade.
b)         Duty Free Country
In UAE, tax for corporations and private individuals are approximately close to zeros. Businesses operating in the UAE are paying fewer taxes in comparison to whole world. Only companies operating in Oil, gas and petrochemical are suppose to pay the taxes and foreign banks operating in the country. Fewer tax for corporations in UAE was underlined in a report conducted for paying taxes in 2013 by the International Financial Corporation and World Bank.
Import tariff in UAE are low, almost 5% for most of the products sold in the country. There is no import tariff on goods imported from the Arab countries. There is one more important thing about UAE is that; it has made settlements and signed pacts for the prevention of double taxation with 50 countries. Theses agreements are signed with its major trade partners.
c)         Gulf Cooperation Council
UAE is also member with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC); therefore businesses operating in free zone region for tax in the UAE are enjoying free trade with all member countries of GCC. Countries Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait are members of GCC. Presently GCC member countries are having negotiation with Latin American countries; Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina and also EU, India, China, Japan, Korea, Turkey, Australia and Pakistan to form a trade free agreements. A FTA is a treaty among two or more nations to speedup the movement of business and services in order to carry out large economic incorporation among them.  FTAs pursue to boost and promote trade between the cosigner states through the requisite that their businesses have special entrance to each other’s arcades. All FTAs have three components, explicitly the liberalization in the trade of goods, services and investment. UAE was also taking effective part in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994, know currently serving an active member in World Trade Organization since 1996.

VIII. THE DETERMINATION OF EXCHANGE RATE:
a)         GDP and Exchange Rate:
United Arab Emirates is a Middle Eastern country which has GDP of USD 412.35$ billion which grew at 4.36% compared to the previous year (according to IMF in 2014) making it   27th largest GDP in the world. The economy of UAE is manufacturing based.  The United Arab Emirate’s currency is the UAE Dirham (AED). The exchange rate is 3.6697 AED per 1 USD from 1st of January 2014 until now. Exchange rate for other currently used currency for foreign transaction are 1 GBP = 6.29776 AED, 1 AUD = 3.51079 AED, I CAD = 3.52738 AED, I EURO=5.0897, 1 AED-.6233 CNY until 5th July 2014 with closely no fluctuation. It is apprehended that AED is quite stable in terms of exchange rate with most of the well-known currencies.
b)         Fisher Effect:
As reported by the ministry of economy of United Arab Emirates, inflation rate was 2% in May 2014. The average inflation rate from 1990 to 2014 recorded at 2.04% with some fluctuation reaching at the highest of 12.30% in December 2008 during the worldwide economic crisis dropping down at 1.60% in January 2011 which was the lowest. Real interest rate in UAE as of 17 May, 2014 is 10.65%. With this information nominal interest rate can be determined by the real interest rate and the inflation rate according to the theory of fisher effect:
(1+r)=(1+R)(1+i), or   r= (1+R)(1+i)-1,  r=(1+10.65%)(1+2%)-1=0.12863 or 12.863% as the nominal interest is high and inflation rate is moderate in the short run it can be assumed that investors specially the major trading partners of UAE may find it is reasonable to invest to get a higher rate of return if their inflation rate is higher than UAE .
c)         Major Trading Partner:
The UAE is the top exporter of iron ingots, lime stones and lead bars and Its major export is oil and gas output which comprises 40% of country`s GDP.   Its major trading partners are USA, Japan, India, China, South Korea, Germany, Iran and Thailand.
d)         Big Mac Index:
Big Mac Index can be used to estimate the exchange rate of currencies because McDonald’s has operations in 118 countries around the globe serving more than 69 million people per day in more than 34000 outlets, that’s why prices between different countries can be compared. In the following chart shows the comparison of big mac combo meal price in USA and UAE and the implied PPP (3.66-3.67/3.67) indicates an under valuation of dollar of about 0.27% in UAE:
Country
Big Mac Price in Local Currency
Big Mac Price in USD
Implied  PPP
Actual dollar exchange rate
Under or over valuation against USD,%
USA
$4.20
$4.20
-
-
-
UAE
12
$3.27
2.86
3.67
-22

e)         Membership with OPEC and World Bank:
UAE joined OPEC (Organization of petroleum exporting countries) in 1967 after the excavation of commercial oil first in 1958 – onshore in the Bab- 2 well and offshore at Umm Shaif.
United Arab Emirates joined the World Bank in 1972 and during their 30 years of partnership they vested their interest in Technical Cooperation program, supporting the rapid development of this closely linked group of distinctively characterized countries, which ranged from the infrastructural development such as interstate Saudi –Bahrain Causeway to industrial economic planning. UAE advanced further by investing public fund in high quality infrastructure and in the creation of multi-annual development plans with integrated objectives and goals.



REFERENCES:
‘DUBAI’S LEGAL SYSTEM CREATING A LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORKFOR A MODERN SOCIETY’


http://atlas.media.mit.edu/profile/country/are/
http://worldtracker.org/media/library/College%20Books/International%20Business/Chapter04.pdf
http://reflectivedisequilibrium.blogspot.ca/2014/05/what-does-migration-to-united-arab.html
http://dubai.ae/en/aboutdubai/Pages/DubaiEconomy.aspx
http://www.uaeinteract.com/uaeint_misc/pdf/perspectives/14.pdf
http://www.thenational.ae/uae/environment/sweeping-changes-to-environmental-protection-in-the-uae

http://www.quandl.com/uae/uae-economy-data      = real rate of interest  of uae